submitted by DanzaBot to ThoughtsAndPrayers [link] [comments]
“There’s no stopping online gaming,” Ader said [before Adelson's death]. “(Las Vegas Sands’) initiatives to stop online gaming, at this stage, are largely historic. There hasn’t been a lot of spending recently to do that, especially post-pandemic.”
“I think the company will see the value created by DraftKings and FanDuel and Penn (National) Gaming and others. They’re not foolish,” Ader added. source
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submitted by Faysalmahmud45 to MAKEMONEY2021 [link] [comments] HOW YOU CAN MAKE MONEY ONLINE IN 2021 It seems this pandemic we have been hit with has had a big effect not only in our health but also with our jobs and income, With lots of us now looking at how to make money online and in particular ways to make money at home. Learning how to make extra money online is more important than ever seeing as lots of people, Me included still are not that keen on leaving the house. Would you like to know how to make extra money online and earn an extra £500 per month on top of your normal wage? If you are looking for ways to make money at home and in particular how to make money online then this is the post for you. All of these methods I have used personally and I have always made money from them. It seems weird writing 2021 but after the year everyone on earth has had in 2020 I think everyone is looking forward to moving ahead. What better way to move ahead than to take on new ways to make money at home and in particular an extra £500 per month on top of your normal wage. Some of my posts may contain affiliate links. This simply means if you purchase something after clicking one of the links I may receive a commission at no extra cost to yourself. Many thanks for the continued support. So without further ado lets jump in and see how we are going to go about making that extra money online. 1: MATCHED BETTING: I have said this before but putting it simply Matched Betting is the number one when it comes to the easiest way to make money at home. If you are not making extra money online by using Matched Betting then you are missing out on some serious extra cash. Matched betting is the action of placing a for and against bet on a football team or other sport and using this to gain the bookmaker bonuses. It is 100% legal and is netting some people up to £1500 Per month. When looking around for how to make money online this comes top of most google searches. There is a mom I know on one of the Matched betting forums who is earning approx. £1200 per month from the comfort of her own home while her children nap. It’s crazy and sometimes I feel people ignore this as they just think it is normal betting or it is not entirely legal but trust me it is. If you are interested in learning a bit more then check out my guide on Matched Betting, it goes a bit more into how it works. This is my main way of how to make money at home and it has worked really well for me. I even taught a friend how to do it and he now makes around £400 extra per month in his spare time. Or if you want to start making extra money online straight away then simply click on the banner below to get free access to Profit accumulator a site which has helped 300,000 customers by showing them how to make money online from Matched Betting. Profit Accumulator literally walks you through each matched bet with full text and video guides to and will have you making extra money online in an hour or so. Check them out. 2: VIRTUAL ASSISTANT So if you do a search on how to make money online I’m pretty sure that Virtual assistant will be close to the top of the search options. There is a very good reason for that. We are now living in an ever-increasing digital age and this is getting more and more common especially with the pandemic as companies are working out that it saves them money having their staff work from home. This also means lots of businesses will need digital assistants or Virtual assistants to assist them with their day to day business needs. So how do I start making extra money online from being a virtual assistant and what will I need to do? A virtual assistant could do any number of tasks online such as answering and replying to emails. Creating Facebook adverts, Decluttering emails, Setting up meetings and or organizing an online diary. There are plenty of virtual assistants who specialize in certain areas and I know of a couple of VA’s that specialize in making Pinterest pins for a blog and scheduling them out. Assuming you have a laptop or pc and a good internet connection as well as some personal skills such as good literacy, typing skills and organizational skills then you should have the basics to get started. Rebecca Lake over at Bosssinglemama.com has a great guide to getting started as a virtual assistant as she has great first-hand experience in this field. Go check it out. 3: SELL GOODS ON EBAY Let me add before I get started that I hate eBay, Don't get me wrong I have made money with eBay and from time to time it is a good way of earning some quick cash but out of all the ways of how to make money online, this is one of my least favorites. The reason is simply that there are lots of stupid people out there who bid for no reason or argue the item didn't arrive or is not as described and this can be annoying as well as very time-consuming. Don’t let this put you off though as it may have just been my experience but it’s not for me. However, if you are looking to get started with ways to make money at home then this is a good a place as any. The best place to start making extra money online with eBay is to have a clear out around the house and get together all the stuff you are probably thinking of just throwing out. Have a search around the site and see what other people have listed these types of items for. Once you have sold your stuff you can then reinvest that money by buying some packing products off the site and then look for stuff to buy and resell. Look around at car boot sales and thrift stores to get your bargains and then relist at a profit on eBay, Don’t forget to add the cost of your eBay fees and Paypal fees into the equation. When I first started looking at how to make money online eBay was one of the first places I came to. 4: CASINO OFFERS Hold on, I’m not suggesting you go down to your local casino. That is not a great way to make money, In fact, your more often than not lose all of your money. This is a cheeky way of gaining profit from the online casino bonuses offered to new customers. It works in a very similar way to Matched betting in that new bonuses are offered out to new customers and with a bit of background knowledge and trickery, you can obtain most of the profit from those bonuses without losing any money. It might sound too good to be true but it is from the brainchild of the guys over at Profit accumulator. Quite a lot of money earned within a day or two. Simply sign up with Bonus Accumulator, and they will walk you through your first couple of casino offers and then you will get access to their site which includes guides for all online casino offers as well as a very good forum for members. Sign up below and see how easy it is to make a good consistent profit. When I was learning how to make money online I didn’t have something as easy and accessible as Bonus accumulator. Hit the link below to learn more. 5: PINTEREST VA As with being a virtual assistant as I mentioned above, you could also specialize in one certain area if you are looking at how to make money online. Pinterest is essentially a search engine and requires not only great titles and descriptions but also very good graphics and visuals that stand out from the crowd when your potential customers are scrolling through it on their phone. This is where the problem lies for most bloggers or business owners, we are not overly creative and have probably not used graphics sites such as Canvas before. Luckily I have used Canvas and have now got pretty good at it, however, in the beginning, a Pinterest VA would have been very handy. A Pinterest VA can not only create pretty pins linking back to your site or blog but also they can schedule them out for you saving you more time to concentrate on other areas. My advice when trying to start out is to join some blogging groups on Facebook and create a profile. Then just put yourself out there. As a new VA, you could always offer out your services very cheaply just to get some experience behind you. Kristin from Believe In A Budget has a great post here on how she became a Pinterest VA and how to make money online from learning how to do it yourself. 6: OFFER SITES OHMYDOSH: Making extra money online and more specifically making around £500 per month is no easy feat. Offers sites are great at making you £20 here and £30 there but to do £500 per month you will need to combine 2 or 3 of these sites and hit them hard. It is possible though. You can certainly make £250 per month easily. When looking back at what I did when I was working out how to make money online as I found offers sites and the first one I came across was OhMyDosh. Offers sites are basically cashback sites that reward you with cash into the account when you sign up for certain things or do simple surveys etc. It is super easy and you can very quickly in one afternoon make a cheeky £50 or so with very minimal effort on your part. OhMyDosh is one of the easiest offers sites to navigate in my humble opinion. This makes all the difference as well when you are new to the site so I stuck with OhMyDosh for quite a while. You can sign up here for OhMyDosh if You use my special link you will also get a £1 sign up bonus for free. A nice little start to your profit without having to lift a finger. Pin This For Future Reference: SWAGBUCKS: Swagbucks is a very similar website to OhMyDosh accept it is a little more well known. You simply complete offers and surveys in exchange for Swagbucks which when you hit a certain amount of you can exchange for gift cards etc. It can get incredibly addictive as Swagbucks have a few daily targets for you to hit and achievements along the way. It becomes your goal to hit those achievements every day. If you sign up using my Swagbucks Link you will receive 300 Swagbucks for free. What a great way to start towards earning your first gift card. Swagbucks also have a chrome app button which you can install on your computer which can help you earn more each day giving you greater chances of earning some fantastic gift cards for yourself or your loved ones. INBOX POUNDS: Inbox Pounds is the last site you should try in the offers sites. When It comes to making extra money online then combining the 3 offers sites I have mentioned is the best way to maximise your income. Some of the offers will be the same but just skip those and move onto the next one. Inbox pounds also has a different variant called inbox dollars for our friends across the pond. The easy stuff is a section that I like on Inbox pounds whereby you can go on and answer easy questions or a simple survey for between 50pence to £1.50. You will be surprised how quickly these all add up. Dont miss out on making extra money online and earning some really quick cash, sign up using my referral code and start earning now. 7: BLOGGING Blogging is one of the top answers when searching for how to make money online. Although blogging is not a quick way to make money and it is certainly not the easiest it is one of the more rewarding ways to make money at home. If you are starting a blog just to make money you need to know that for most people it can be more than a year before they start seeing income and for others maybe less. It really does depend on how much effort you put into your blog. Take my blog for example. I work really long hours in my main job and a lot of the time I dont work on my blog until the weekend and then I am tired so just dont put too many hours in. It took me around a year before I started earning money. Other people may put in 4 or 5 hours a day every day and they will progress faster. With blogging though and when it comes to making extra money online with your blog, you need a bit of patience. If you have a passion for something then it is usually quite easy to turn this passion into a blog. It always helps if whatever you are writing about is something you really enjoy. If this is something that sounds good to you then I have written a few blogging guides to get you started here. Starting out blogging can be a bit of a minefield so I’m hoping these guides help. You can start your very own blog from as little as £5.99 per month. Siteground is who I use to host this blog and I have found them really great to work with. see their link below. Seeing as starting a blog is so cheap then there is nothing to stop you making extra money online from your new blog. 8: BECOME A PROOFREADER If you are always looking at how to make money online and keep seeing the same old stuff then try learning about how to get paid to become a proofreader. This is one of those great ways to make money at home by simply using your computer. Here in the UK I occasionally read a newspaper called the daily mail. I read it via an online app and every single page I read has grammatical errors and misspellings and it drives me mad (Frantically goes back through this post to look for misspellings!!) They clearly dont have anyone proofread their posts before they go onto the app and it makes me not read it as much. Im sure this is that same for other people. This can lead to you losing business so paying someone to Proofread emails, documents and other such media can be valuable and companies will pay you to to do this. Getting started Proofreading is a little harder but I would suggest setting up some profiles on sites such as People Per Hour Fiverr.com or Upwork. You can then offer up your services cheaply which will help if you have no experience. A lot of proofreading jobs will need you to have a degree unfortunately however there are lots of free courses online to help you get a good feel for Proofreading and can give you some background knowledge. If you love reading and spot mistakes easily then proofreading can be a great way of making extra money online. Read this beginners guide here and see how you feel about it. 9: TEACH ENGLISH ONLINE It sounds like you need to go off and get some kind of degree but trust me you don’t. You already have the gift of being able to speak perfect English and if you are looking at how to make money online then that is the skill you can use to do exactly that. I found out about this when my wife and I were hosting foreign students at our home. We got chatting to them and one group, in particular, said that a lot of the older students already speak good English but were struggling with conversational type language and how to sound more natural which must be an incredibly hard thing to do. They said that a lot of the students pay up to £20 per hour just to chat to you online and for you to give guidance on how they can sound more natural with their day to day chat. It sounded like a great idea of how to make money online so I got more information from them. Lots of companies are looking for people just like you to teach their students English and to reward you well for doing just that. It can all be done from the comfort of your own home with skype or in a zoom type meeting. Make sure to provide yourself with a quiet room and make sure there are going to be no distractions such as mobile phones going off or family members popping their heads in. So where do you go to find out more information and start making extra money online? Well, Education First is the biggest company and one im sure you will have heard of. You can build your own schedule although it does have to fit in somewhat with the hours the student is available. You can also teach the same student each time so you can build up a rapport and have a little fun with it. Click the link above and learn how to make extra money online by teaching students. 10: PUBLISH AN EBOOK With that handy website Amazon, you can write your own E-book and publish it on their site. The great thing is you dont even need to write it yourself if you dont want to as you can pay people to write it and also get people to design a cover for your E-book as well. The best way to prepare is to do a search on what keywords are doing well on searches within amazon and then base your E-book around those. As long as you are helping people learn something or solving a problem then you should see sales quite easily. It might help if you put your E-book up for free for a few weeks to gain some interest and some good reviews before applying a price. This E-book right here is the perfect example. How to write an E-book and sell it on Amazon step by step guide. Just remember you do not have to be an expert in something just a little more knowledgeable than your average Joe. 11: FREELANCE WORK In the current economic climate, we all find ourselves in, it makes sense to look for ways of how to make money online. Freelancing with skills you already have in your day job or skills you have in your hobbies can translate quite well when it comes to making extra money online. You can create a profile on sites such as Fiverr and Upwork and list the skills you have. You may be able to use a program like Canva really well to create Pinterest graphics or Wedding invites. There are people on Fiverr who get paid to play video games with lonely people which is a bit weird but shows that if you don’t think you possess a skill then you are probably wrong. FINAL THOUGHTS ON MAKING MONEY ONLINE IN 2021 This global pandemic has taught me one thing and that is the importance of making extra money online and having a passive income is paramount. How to make money online is now a more searched for term on Google now then it was at the beginning of the year. Everyone’s jobs have been and still are at risk and to have a second or third source of income is like a safety net in case the worst happens. Make sure you pick and try one of the making extra money online tips from above and see how you get on. I would love to hear some progress feedback in the comments. |
Who is this Poker Guide for? submitted by shondon3 to u/shondon3 [link] [comments] This guide is aimed primarily at the beginning player, although it is possible to find useful tips for more experienced players. If you have not yet made your first deposit at an online poker room, I suggest you start at the beginning of this guide and read it to the end. You don't have to read it all at once, but at least the sections that deal with deposit and banking issues, to understand the implications of your first deposit and how to deal with it. https://preview.redd.it/vt45qm7cld761.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=8d088a2c157928c55958d9c00a1267ab507fe657 If you are already playing online but you feel unsure about how to make money read the banking section (if only above) because it is important to understand its importance. Since you may already know about the different types of games, you can advance to the study section. If you are an experienced gamer just looking for some advice, this guide is not designed for you, but the Study section may be helpful. Why is Internet Poker so Popular? Why has internet poker suddenly become so popular? Is it because of the televised events? Is it because of Chris Moneymaker? Is it a natural cycle in games? All those things help, but I think the main reason is that it is a very exciting and fun game. Unfortunately, this game has become very difficult to play for many people who would enjoy it. Many countries, and many US states, do not have poker rooms or casinos, at least not legal ones. Getting a group of 6-10 people to play for an extended period can be difficult. And getting everyone to agree on the limits and type of game can make things much more complicated. And even many people have a moral problem earning money from their friends and family, which means that regardless of the outcome, they will lose out even if they win. But then the internet came along, and all these problems disappeared with the advent of online poker. You no longer need anyone to play three times a week. You can play with the limits you want, whenever you want, the game you want, and at any time of the day. You can play with anonymous people with whom you have no emotional ties, thus avoiding feeling guilty about taking your best friend's money. I think that is the main reason for the success of internet poker: the game has always been wonderful, but with online poker rooms some of the problems associated with the game have been solved. For this reason, I have a more optimistic view than other players about the future of internet poker: I believe that online poker is here to stay - at least - maintaining the size it is today and possibly bigger. We are only seeing the beginning. Can I really make money? Can you really make money? In a word: yes. Although I do not know you, the fact that you have made the effort to find this guide, makes me trust that "yes". What may still be up in the air is how much there is for you to win, or rather, at what limits you can play with benefits. Being able to win at micro limits in internet poker is not difficult to achieve. Although not everyone can dedicate themselves to it professionally. Playing poker online does not have to mean a waste of money if you are willing to work your game. The second school believes that this "ratio" does not mean anything, its result is not important. His philosophy has merits too, especially as it teaches people not to be result-oriented. They do not care what the rival has taught you, it only matters what you think he had, and how you have acted. This analytical way of looking at the game is a very powerful way to improve it. The third school is totally opposite to the second: in this the only thing that matters is the result, and not how it has been reached. The "ratio" is indifferent to them. Poker is making money - how much have you won? The fact that you have consistently won 125,000 hands is great, but what do you have to prove it? Success in poker is measured by your lifetime earnings. The reason I speak of these schools of thought when trying to answer the phrase "can you make money?" Is that I cannot give a generic answer to the question "how much?" And if you wonder if you can win at internet poker, the answer is YES. Focus on learning a way to win at the game, and eventually you will find out where the profit is and how much it will be. The place to start is your bank - keep reading using the menu on the left. |
Although we title this article as the best strategy guide for online poker, what we are going to detail are basic rules of poker that every beginner should take into account. And we are of the opinion that beauty is simple, and poker players understand it very well. Poker may be an easy game to learn, but it is a difficult game to master. That is the maxim that we will all have read in poker books or seen in movies like Rounders. Fortunately, each game is based on a set of rules - learn the rules and you'll be fine. Too many poker players fall by the wayside because they ignore the advice of the poker pros. submitted by venning4 to u/venning4 [link] [comments] Sometimes both elements are combined to offer a purple game patch. Poker fans often claim that the better they play, the luckier they are. In fact, there is merit in this assumption since poker is a game of thinking players. It is a multifaceted "organism" with dynamics in the game, complex rules, hand rankings and betting behavior that must be understood in its entirety. https://preview.redd.it/2ucrpq9bnd761.png?width=712&format=png&auto=webp&s=b95d40d8e273283bf942f85d60567986de643356 What happens if you don't follow the online poker strategy? You lose. That is the short answer. Sure, anything can happen in the short term with luck in river card poker smiling at you, but ultimately poker is a game of tactics, strategies, skills, wits, and good fortune. The more correct decisions you play, the more chances of success you have. There are many tips that you can implement to optimize your game. For example, you won't make much progress in poker if you don't bet. Sure, you can watch other players competing while sitting on the sidelines and thus learn what their behavior patterns are at the table. You can even entertain yourself with poker card tricks while they carry out their actions during the game. Like so many other things in life, the most effective way to learn is by immersing yourself in action. That means you have to register, log in and play online poker. Another tip is to start small and slowly increase your level of involvement in the game. This is a good thing. A little bit of aggression is an integral part of the game, and it is one of the things that you will have to learn early on when playing internet poker. As a newbie to poker, you will always fall into one of two traps: either you play all hands, or you run out of playing too many hands. Or what is the same, or you abuse being tight or conservative or you are more aggressive or loose than you should. What you need is an aggressive approach to the game of online poker that is based on decision making as much as possible. informed possible. How important is strategy to playing online poker? There are two things that will help you win online poker games: luck and strategy. Each of them is important, but you can only control one of them. Learn the art of the game of poker and you will put yourself in a position where you are much more likely to win consistently. Do you remember the famous discoverer of the pasteurization system Louis Pasteur? He himself said that chance favors the prepared mind, and he was right. In poker, you simply have to know the rules of the game, the odds and odds, and the psychology that drives the actions of other players. Once you do, you can use that knowledge at the tables and win more online poker games. Golden tips for online poker This is a summary folks. This short guide on having a strategy for online poker will serve you well as you prepare to knock down some monster pots. And remember that you can practice online playing poker for free or in low-risk games and gradually increase your way to higher buy-ins. That is the main advice. But don't forget the following: Practice strict fund management at all times Strong and aggressive playing style with premium starting hands is recommended Learn and take advantage of many trusted resources to get the most complete online poker strategy Your position at the poker table can give you a lot of valuable information especially in late position or late position (EP, MP and LP), precisely those positions being the best. Focus on your poker hand, but also on the other players and the cards on the table when you are not participating. |
(Edited repost: the original post required a couple of small changes.) submitted by Dr-Lotto to Lottery [link] [comments] I've been crunching a lot of numbers, sending a lot of FOIA requests, and searching for advantages. I want to share a little bit of what I've learned so far. OverviewThese are a couple of the rules I've determined will help you win more often.
Play tickets that have been sold for a long time and have a large number of unclaimed grand prizes.To understand this rule, you need to know a little bit of math. It's not much. It can be explained in simple terms. But it's powerful enough to beat blackjack in the casino. What you're about to read is the foundation behind card-counting. But here, we use it to beat scratch offs.There is an important difference between scratch offs and draw games like Powerball. In draw games, every draw is "independent". What I mean by that is the results of a previous draw have no effect on the results of the following draws. If the draw for a pick 3 game is "3", "1", "9", then the odds that the following draw is also "3", "1", "9" are the exact same. This is counter-intuitive to a lot of people. If you flip a coin 3 times and it comes up heads all 3 times, then it's natural to think that it's more likely to come up tails on the next flip. But it's not! It is still equally likely to be either heads or tails on the 4th flip. The counter-intuitiveness of this is known as the "Gambler's Fallacy" and can be read about many places online, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy, so I won't go into any more detail. Just know that it's a mathematical fact. The previous results of a draw game have no effect on future draws. How are scratch offs different?But with scratch offs, previous results do affect the future. It's obvious when you look at an extreme example. Consider what happens if there is a single grand prize in 1 million unscratched tickets. Your odds of getting the grand prize is 1 in a million. But now imagine you just watched the person in line in front of you buy a ticket, scratch it, and reveal the grand prize. Now there are no more grand prizes. Your odds are exactly 0!In that extreme example, it's clear that past results affect future odds. This is completely different from a draw game. In a draw game, if someone hits the Powerball jackpot with 09, 36, 49, 56, 62, 08, then that doesn't mean you should or shouldn't play those exact same numbers next week. They are just as likely to appear again as any other set of numbers. But scratch offs aren't randomized with each purchase. Scratch offs are randomized once, when the tickets are printed. Then, as the tickets are bought and scratched, the remaining tickets become less random. This is just like counting cards at blackjack. The deck is shuffled once at the beginning of the game. Then, as cards are dealt, the deck becomes less random. Once it becomes less random in favor of the player (more big cards remaining than little cards), then the player has an advantage and can increase their bet. How do you know which tickets have have many unclaimed grand prizes and few remaining overall tickets?Most states publish this information on their lottery homepages.Here is an example from the Florida Lottery for the $3 Multiplier Crossword https://www.flalottery.com/scratch-offsGameDetails?gameNumber=1429 https://preview.redd.it/9p5sp880x9p51.png?width=481&format=png&auto=webp&s=3d5dc49e773243274dca0952502b06f51f0d54c1 That table has a column showing the total number of tickets printed at each prize tier and another table showing the number of tickets claimed at each prize tier. The lowest-value ticket is usually the most common. It often has hundreds of thousands of tickets printed. There is something in math known as "the law of large numbers" that makes the lowest price ticket a good indicator of what percentage of tickets have been sold. Even though the state doesn't publish how many tickets in total have been sold, and even though they don't say anything at all about the non-winning tickets that have been sold, we can use the lowest-priced ticket as a good estimator. In the image above, you can see that 3,170,852 tickets were printed that were $3 winners. Of those, only 603,652 remain. With some simple math, we can convert that to a percentage. 603,652 / 3,170,852 = 0.19 So about 19% of the tickets remain. 81% of the tickets have been sold. How about the grand prizes? Are there a large number of grand prizes remaining in relation to how many tickets have been sold? To know that, we need to convert the number of grand prizes remaining to a percentage also, that we we can compare percentages to percentages, apples to apples. There are 4 grand prizes remaining out of 20 total grand prizes printed. 4 / 20 = 0.20 So 20% of the grand prizes remain. That's almost exactly where we expect to be. That means there is not a lot of grand prizes remaining in relation to the total number of tickets remaining. If there were 5 grand prizes remaining, then the percentage remaining would be 5 / 20 = 0.25, or 25%. Then there would be 5% more grand prizes than expected. If that were the case, this might be a good game to play! Knowing this, you can check back daily or weekly and see how the numbers change. Every day, more tickets will be sold. Let's say a few weeks pass and couple hundred thousand $3 winners are claimed. Now there's 400,000 $3 prizes remaining. 400,000 / 3,170,852 = 0.126 If no grand prizes have been claimed in that time, then now there's only about 12.6% tickets remaining but still 20% grand prizes remaining. Grand prizes are almost 8% more likely than average! Check your state lottery website and you can perform these calculations for whatever games you like to play. Prefer playing a few higher priced tickets over many lower priced tickets.I wrote software to automatically analyze every scratch off game from many different states.As part of that analysis, I calculate the total amount of prizes that will be paid out. Since the states publish on their websites the total number of tickets at each prize tier and the value of each prize. I simply multiply the number of tickets at each tier by that tier's value and then sum the results for each tier of a game. Another number I calculate is the cost to buy every ticket. That's a lot easier. It's simply the total number of tickets printed times the price of each ticket. If a game prints 14 million tickets and each ticket costs $10, then the cost to buy every ticket is 14 million times $10, or $140 million. Those two numbers are all we need to calculate the "expected value" of a game. If a game has $100 million in prizes and it would cost $140 million to buy every ticket, that means the state will make $40 million in profit. That profit comes out of our pockets. But we can minimize our losses by playing games where the state has the least profit. Here's a simple example. Which game would you rather play? Game A: $100 million in prizes where it would cost $140 million to buy every ticket. Game B: $120 million in prizes where it would cost $140 million to buy every ticket. Obviously, game B is better. The state takes less profit. That means more money in our pockets. This is one way to rank the quality of a game. The more money that is returned to players and the less money that the state keeps as profit, the better the game. By analyzing data from every game for multiple states, I have determined the average quality for different priced tickets. This graph below tells the whole story. https://preview.redd.it/u6hm1t7gx9p51.png?width=1645&format=png&auto=webp&s=5cd0e3afc3ef411ec7d62c23dacd14ef74291b7b It is clear that on average, higher priced tickets are better. Spending $100 on $20 tickets will result in an average win of $71.95 while spending $100 on $2 tickets will result in an average win of $65.65. By buying $20 tickets rather than $2 tickets, you will win an average of $6.30 more! Why do states pay out more for higher priced tickets?This advantage comes from economics.It costs roughly the same amount for the state to print a $1 ticket as a $20 ticket. Here's a table that shows the prices that GTECH, a ticket printer, proposed to the Texas Lottery. https://preview.redd.it/gqpn85whx9p51.png?width=1295&format=png&auto=webp&s=c21158fa868caa4da444a5ec8404f9a8a822d3be Usually, lower priced tickets are smaller. A $1 ticket might be 2.4 inches x 4 inches while a $20 ticket has more gameplay options and might be 10 inches x 4 inches. Those dimensions correspond to the "A" and "E" columns in the table above. The values you see in each row are the cost per 1,000 tickets. Let's compare. The cost of 1 million $1 tickets of 2.4 inches x 4 inches in packs of 250 would cost $33.78 per 1,000 tickets, or about $0.034 per ticket. The cost of 1 million $20 tickets of 10 inches x 4 inches in packs of 50 would cost $59.50 per 1,000 tickets, or about $0.06 per ticket. That's 3.4 cents per $1 ticket and 6 cents per $20 ticket. Why are higher priced tickets better?The state needs to make a profit on the lottery. That's the whole point of the lottery: to make money to pay for services like education and roads.Money that goes towards ticket printing is wasted. It's money that is taken from the players and is not kept by the state. The less money that goes towards ticket printing, the more money is available to pay out in prizes (and to go towards public goods). While the $20 ticket may cost more to print than the $1 ticket (6 cents vs 3.4 cents), the percentage of the ticket price that goes towards printing costs is lower. 6 cents is only 0.3% of $20. That's zero-point-three percent. Less than half of a percent of the ticket price goes towards the printing costs. 3.4 cents out of $1 is 3.4%, or over 3% of the ticket price going towards printing costs. If you were to buy $100 worth of $1 tickets, the state would have paid $3.4 to ticket printers, leaving only $96.60 in funds to split between paying players through the prize pool and funding things like public roads and education. But if you were to buy $100 worth of $20 tickets, then the state would have paid only $0.18 to ticket printers! That leaves $99.82 to split between the prizes and state funding. Note: The above is a simplified calculation that doesn't take the full cost of each ticket from printing to disposal. There's obviously costs associated with shipping and other services. But I wouldn't expect the percentages to change much. The economics of high-price vs low-price tickets is still the same. Good luck!I want to close by wishing you good luck. But now you know there's more to it than just luck. Use these tips and tricks to your advantage and make your own luck.A final word of caution: even if you follow all of this advice, it's still practically impossible to consistently make profit from scratch offs. The best that almost anyone can do is to increase their "expected value". |
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Hey Jeff! I'm a minimalist & find that I'm happier with less stuff & when I give/receive experiences rather than items. Do you find consumer happiness reflects this shift towards minimalism since that is a (small, but seemingly growing) trend, especially among Millennials? | Great question! There is some relatively new research looking at happiness from experiences vs. material possessions. Most of it shows that happiness from equally valued (e.g. price) experiences is higher than for possessions. HOWEVER, and this is a big however, all that work tends to ignore long run happiness with highly prized possessions. For instance, if you have a sentimentally valued object, happiness that stems from that object lasts for a long time. What most possessions don't do is provide long lasting happiness. You buy a new shiny toy and it DOES make you happy...but that happiness goes away quickly. My collaborators and I have termed this idea "Hedonic Decline." |
So as for minimalism, there is not evidence that I know of that shows that less possessions make you happier. There's plenty showing that more possessions don't make you happier, but that's not the same thing. | |
One more layer of complexity: there are two routes to happiness: hedonic and eudaimonic. The former is what we usually think of when we think of happiness: how much joy does XYZ bring me. The latter, however, is closer to self-actualization. It's the happiness the comes from a accomplishing something....even if there was pain involved in getting there. I wonder if minimalism can increase eudaimonic happiness. | |
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That's interesting. Thank you for responding. In the minimalism community, self-actualization is reflected in endeavors such as achieving certain goals (like, paying off debt) that usually involves some amount of self-discipline &/or self-sacrifice. | I'd say that the vast majority of research in happiness excludes eudaimonic happiness, largely because it's so hard to measure. My personal, non-data supported, take is that eudaimonic happiness is far more important than hedonic happiness. The latter is fleeting, whereas the former can be life changing. |
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Beautifully said. | Thank you. |
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How does depression affect eudaimonic happiness compared to hedonic happiness? | Great question and I don't know the answer. Social Psychology typical studies what we very poorly term "normal" psychology, which excludes clinical conditions like depression. Sorry! |
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What’s your take on “pay to play” - as in, some “hedonic” purchases at are required to signal you’re in the game, making progress on eudaimonic happiness. When you get older and into your career, I’d venture many people have already figured out that hedonic happiness doesn’t do squat long-term, but there’s a balance in terms of how much hedonic happiness to have to acquire for the ultimate long-term eudaimonic happiness. Example: in sales, which I’m in tech analytics sales, companies want to spend for solutions to business problems, but they also want to see, visually, that the person they’re paying is a good representative for them. High cost equals a person that can represent that taste. Nice. Tailored suits, a nice watch and latest tech gadgets. There’s a pay to play aspect that signals to the world who I am, and that in turn actually allows me to get what I want- student loans paid off and early retirement.. | I don't think there's any conflict here. If you will find some form of life satisfaction by succeeding in your career, there's no harm in also purchasing items that help you reach that goal. Those items can, in and of themselves, make you happy...nothing wrong with that. More to the point, hedonic and eudaimonic happiness don't have to be in opposition. You can have both! |
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I really like this response. While i can jive with basic premise of experiences over possessions...i’m find it used a lot by people who actually just want to shirk obligation. I run HHiring and there is a persistent trend of people not wanting to act like their job is important..just because it’s easier to justify bailing on work/shifts to go do things when you can say you’re doing it for the experience, not focusing on the money you make at a job. I’m trying to figure out the best way to respond to people who think i’m some big bad money grubbing boss for wanting people to do their jobs. Meanwhile, in my personal life...i feel like i’m getting a lot of push back socially from people who think i should only work where i can just make my own schedule and dip put for an “experience” whenever. At the end of the say, it feels like people will just wax philosophic reasons for demanding leisure with all the material perks of having jobs and working. | Great point. This relates to intrinsic vs. extrinsic motivation. The former is the desire to do something because it's inherently interesting/rewarding. The latter is doing something for compensation. This is more in the realm of organizational behavior, and you'll have to wait for my wife who is also a professor, but of organizational behavior and theory, to do an AMA for more on that :) |
Hello, thanks for doing this. Are you familiar with "loot boxes" in video games? I feel like the topics of a lot of your papers would fit right into why consumers/businesses use loot boxes. How does a loot box mechanic differ from gambling and should it be treated the same? (Regulation, age restriction, etc) If they are the same, how do you feel about video games including a loot box mechanic? Sticking with gambling parallels, what are your thoughts on video game companies targeting "whales" given that gamers can be any age nowadays? | I'm not a gamer myself (though I do love TTPRGs and run a D&D 5e campaign), but I'm pretty familiar with loot boxes. Mobile games and social media platforms in general have become very good at continuous reinforcement. It can be the allure of getting a new outfit in a loot box or just an upvote on Reddit...the point is that we are wired to love small rewards, even if those rewards are meaningless. Casinos have mastered this art and loot boxes are an capitalizing of the same basic psychological mechanisms: need for positive reinforcements. So are loot boxes the same as gambling? Probably not the SAME, but damn close. As for regulation, I am strongly in favor of making gambling of all forms only accessible to adults and even then providing access to counseling for those who suffer from gambling addiction. |
I have a lot less sympathy towards wealthy adults who choose to gamble as a form of entertainment. The problem is that it's not always obvious who's a whale and who's just pretending to be one for the attention. The latter is highly susceptible to financial ruin and I'd want them protected just the same as they are with standard gambling. | |
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Do you find the researcher in you observing and asking questions about the players' decision making processes in your D&D campaign? My old DM minored in psychology, and I often felt like a rat in his experiments. I enjoyed it, though. It kind of added an extra facet to the game. | More than my research, teaching has made a huge difference in being a DM. When I lecture, I am forced to be quick on my feet to understand student questions, reply accordingly, and make sure that I'm moving the lecture along. That is the same with DMing. I need to be able to understand the motives of my players, respond appropriately with NPCs, and keep the story going. |
I'm sure that my knowledge of psychology helps, but I wouldn't think it influences the way I DM (or play) that much. | |
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Studying business Psychology in Switzerland and leading the yawning portal atm, seems like I need to start teaching :p | Ha! Check out this thread: https://www.reddit.com/WaterdeepDragonHeist/comments/fcc89a/the_yawning_portal_a_drinking_song_and_boss_music/ |
I used that for my game and it was great. | |
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Could I join your 5e campaign? | Ha! Sorry, no. It's just close friends and we're months into it. I'm running Waterdeep, if you're curious. |
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I'm applying to Carnegie's MBA for what it's worth! If I'm accepted, may I join then? ;-) | How about you get in and then we discuss! |
Hi Jeff! What is your favorite heuristic or logical fallacy when it comes to decision making? Can you teach us about one that people might not know about? | Easy: Diversification Bias. That's where I started my career 15 years ago. I didn't discover this bias, but have built on it. Anyway, it's the idea that people choose more variety than they should. For example, if you are going to pick some snacks for the next few days, you might pick: chips, pretzels and an apple. Those are fine, but really chips are your favorite and you picked the other two because you thought you'd get tired of chips every day. Well, turns out you'd be wrong. A day is enough to reset satiation/hedonic-decline in most cases, so you'd be better off always picking your favorite option! Doing otherwise means eating snacks that are less preferred. |
A new one that my doctoral student, Julian Givi, and I recently published: The Future Is Now (FIN) Heuristic. It's the idea that people believe that future events will be like present events, even when evidence points to the contrary. An example: if it's sunny today, you're more likely to think it'll be sunny tomorrow, even if the forecast clearly predict rain. What happens is you treat information about the present as having evidentiary value for future events, even when that's just not true. | |
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I really like that you give your student credit. | PhD students do all the hard work. Professors just bask in the glory :) |
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I think diversification bias is how I ended up with 5 shades of blue nail polish that are virtually undistinguishable from each other! Interesting to consider. | Ha! Just might be... |
Tell me about your paper "Sentimental value and gift giving: Givers’ fears of getting it wrong prevents them from getting it right". From what I read of the abstract, it seems that gift-givers undervalue sentimental value, seeing it as riskier. Why is that, and how can we give better gifts? | Sure, this is a paper with my former doctoral student, Julian Givi. Basically, people are risk averse in gift giving when they shouldn't be. If I know you like coffee and I have a choice to give you some nice coffee beans or a framed photo of the two of us (presumably since we're friends), I give the former b/c it's a sure bet. But as the recipient, overwhelmingly, people prefer the latter. So givers should take the risk and give the sentimentally valuable gift over one that is more a sure bet. |
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Interesting. When giving presents, givers focus too much on the recipient's known wants, which gets in the way of giving a meaningful present. Thank you! I'll be sure to keep that in-mind next Christmas. | That's exactly it. |
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I sometimes hesitate at this. I don’t want to come off as the selfie culture of all about me in pictures! But relatives do love getting pics of the kids for gifts. Still, how often is this perceived as a form of narcissism by the gift receiver? Edit: pictures of my kids not just me! | One trick we do: every Christmas holiday we print full size calendars with our kids pictures on them. That's our holiday gift to all the grandparents. They LOVE it. |
We also send small photo books to the grandparents throughout the year of some of the best pictures we take. | |
We have yet to send too many, but that's specific to our family. | |
The best advice I always have for something like this is: just ask! People are often worried about asking gift recipients about their preferences, but our research shows that a) recipients don't care about being asked and b) you can give better gifts that way. | |
Hi Jeff ! I have a question regarding involvement in a purchase, is there an increasing trend to become highly involved in the purchase of even low value object ? I find myself doing this during the pandemic doing comparison searches for a bulb which costs 10 dollars. Is this an exception ? Or is there some underlying psychological reason isolated to me ? | Absolutely. Two reasons this could be happening. 1) With more free time, the threshold for what merits deep research drops a lot. 2) Many people are facing financial hardships, and so making sure every dollar is well spent becomes really important. |
Hi Jeff, Thank you for the great AMA. Where do you see the future of insights departments in consumer companies? Most companies looks like giving up on ethnographic and in person research and focus on data analytics. I speculate management is under great pressure and in the meantime aspire to Google, Amazon etc. What is your take of insights departments future in large companies? | Thank you! Exploratory research like ethnographies, interviews, and focus groups is really useful for brainstorming. But they are a poor substitute for quantitative data. Now, that doesn't mean "big data"...just data that has larger samples and is better representative of populations. Surveys are still amazing. When we want to forecast an election, we don't use big data, we conduct a political poll. They work. |
But yes, right now, AI and machine learning are the hot new ideas on the block and everyone wants in on them. There is plenty of amazing applications of AI/ML, but what they can't do is tell you "why". As in, why did someone choose this option over that one? Or why are people motivated by this goal or that goal? Those types of answers allow you to apply knowledge in completely novel contexts. AI/ML needs to be trained on a specific type of data for a specific type of task. It is AMAZING at that. But as soon as you introduce a new context or new set of experiences, it fails. That's where good old fashioned surveys and behavioral experiments come in. | |
If a program was built to help us make better decisions, do you think we would use it? Do you think we can listen to a program’s advice better than we do from experts? | We already do. Weather forecasts tell us how to dress. Facebook tells us what to think. Tinder tells us who to date. Etc... etc... |
A program that EXPLICITLY tells you what to do won't work too well. People like to feel like they have free will. They don't, though. We are greatly influenced by our environment (not just technology) whether we know it or not. As one example: I can guess your weight reasonably well just by knowing your zip code (please don't make me actually do this as I'm not in the business of public shaming!). If we had true free will and agency, that should be impossible. Instead, we are the products of our environment. | |
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60641 | Chicago? I believe Illinois has 30-35% obesity (I'm doing this quickly and not looking at your zip specifically), so pretty high weight. |
Hi Jeff! Since I'm a 14 yrs old and knew nothing about what you study, I have very limited questions I can ask. But as I have observed, people are often sheepish and will consume as the trend goes. What is the most unexpected trend, worldwide? P.S. will defo check out your channel | I don't expect most people to know my work (I like to think my ego isn't THAT big!), so no worries! |
You're right. Trends will drive a lot of human behavior. We are social creatures and follow what others do much more than we care to admit. As for the most unexpected trend, that's really hard to say. Maybe this is too broad, but I'm surprised by how short people's attention span is when it comes to current events. News cycles used to last for weeks, now they last for hours. I suppose I know that people don't have long attention spans, but I'm still surprised. | |
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Any underlying reasoning for this? | For the short attention spans? We can invoke evolutionary psychology, which I'm not a big fan of, and it would suggest something like a tensions between exploring and cultivating. So it would argue that our ancestors needed to have some reason to leave their immediate tribe to find new resources. So perhaps our attention spans are short b/c of this and the current environment exaggerates that behavior. |
Have you done(or can you point to) any research relating to the decision making/not making around getting rid of possessions? I have a relative who keeps anything that has a perceived value as in could be sold on ebay/garage sale which they never sell. They are otherwise rational, clean, don't over consume..def not hoarder territory.. but I struggle to convince them that the old digital camera that's been sitting for 3 years could just be disposed of. | Hoarding is definitely a thing. There isn't much in the study of item disposition in the empirical world of research (lots of interesting qualitative work that I'm less familiar with). The big exception to this is the Endowment Effect. The short version is that you value items you own more than if you don't own it. So a mug sitting on a store shelf is worth, say $10 to you, but as soon as you own it is worth, say, $20 to you. Nothing changed except your ownership of it. That explains some of hoarding behavior, but not all of it. |
For a qualitative research paper on the topic, see here: https://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/mcb/216/2010/00000013/00000001/art00001 | |
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I suppose I have the Endowment Effect. Everytime I find something valuable i dont have the will to let it go. Even though i can sell it and re buy it later, or buy something similar haha. It's like I want to take the most of it and use it til it brakes, go missing, or whatever. | The endowment effect isn't infinite. As in, it's not that you won't be willing to sell your items for ANY price, it's just that your willingness to sell is higher than your willingness to buy. |
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Hey Professor, appreciate the AMA. A couple of questions: 1) Just from my own thoughts banging around in my head and observations I've made during the pandemic, do you see the pause our society went through and the economic downturn effecting the psychology behind materialism? It seems the American "push for more no matter what" mind state took a eating and I think I'm seeing some consequences of that. | 1) It's possible, but my pretty strong prediction is that within 1-2 years of the pandemic ending, we will be back to where we were beforehand in terms of materialism and general behavior. Extreme events like a pandemic seem like they are life changers. For some, that's true (e.g. someone loses a loved one), but for most it's not. We are inherently myopic and think that the thing in front of our noses is the only thing that exists. |
2) I'm a current medical student and we get inundated with so many studies that it's overwhelming. Trying to practice evidence based medicine is really hard in an atmosphere that prioritizes publishing with little regard to quality. Do you ha e ways of navigating that I could apply to my day to day? Thanks again. | 2) I can't speak to medical research, but that problem exists in all academic fields. The best thing to do is to let science happen. There will always be flashy new findings, but the ones that really matter will get replicated over and over again...and will get built on. The BS ones tend to just die out. That's not a full proof approach to vetting research, but it's better than just assuming everything you see published is true and/or important. |
I am a former CMU student. How do you feel about CMU's decision to appoint Richard Grenell as a senior fellow? And how can we do something to fight against it because it seems they are not listening the current student body? Recently, the fence was vandalized against BLM (they wrote "all lives matter" over the previously written "black lives matter"). How are you working to build a more inclusive community at CMU and to fight for those who need it? How can former students help? | I signed the petition to revoke his appointment and stand by that completely. I do understand why the university is upholding it, but I am embarrassed to have him associated with CMU. |
As for the fence, the CMU Provost sent a really great letter immediately after it all happened condemning the vandalism and supporting BLM. Personally, I try VERY hard to do things like call on students of all races and genders and not let white men (of which I am one, btw) dominate conversations. I try to make sure that examples I use to highlight ideas include more than just typically white and/or male oriented products. I have been trained in Green Dot deescalation for sexual assault and violence. I am on the university academic disciplinary committee and have direct say over infractions like harassment or discrimination. And I sit on my college's Faculty Diversity Equity and Inclusion committee with the hope of including representation and inclusion of URM and female faculty. I care about this topic a LOT and do what I can...still probably not enough. | |
As for alums, if you see behavior at CMU that you think is antithetical to inclusiveness, let the administration know. Get your fellow alums to weigh in. The university wants your sweet sweet alumni donations. If you are all pissed off, they'll reply. | |
Hey Professor! I absolutely love to give. But I feel so awkward being thanked. And I dont really like receiving gifts. What would the psychology behind that be? | Great question. It's hard to know without more detail, but I'd guess that some of that anxiety is about attention...as in, your lack of desire for it. As for not liking receiving gifts, maybe you have just not received that many good gifts? Again, it's really hard to say without knowing a bit more about you and the gift giving contexts you're involved in. If you want to share more, I can try to answer better, but totally understandable if you don't! |
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Well, if I think more deeply....whenever I need something, I feel like it's up to me to make me happy. I usually don't really ask anyone else. Whether I need a massage, have a getaway, or get my dream dog, I just do it myself. | As an aside, self-gifts are great! You get what you need, and nothing else. No issues there. |
To your question, though, I do wonder if you just haven't receive that many great gifts. Yes, gifts can fall flat and the recipient might not love them, but when they hit, they not only provide the value from the gift itself (e.g. a great bottle of wine) but ALSO the sentimental value from the associations that the gift brings up (e.g. who gave it to you and under what circumstances...like for a birthday or graduation). | |
Hi Jeff, I have a job application at a place where they do conjoint analysis, something I have never done before. Got any tips? Do you have any thoughts on the technique in general? Personally as someone who takes surveys I find it very abstract (e.g. "Would you rather buy a $5 toaster with two slots vs. a $20 toaster that takes bagels?" I don't know!). | First, good luck with the job application! Conjoint is a really useful tool when used correctly (like any tool, I suppose). The short version is that it lets you extract utility weights for different dimensions (e.g. price, product size, product speed, etc...) without directly asking people to answer questions about those dimensions. So instead of saying "how important is price to you?" you would come up with product profiles that have varying price (among other things) and then have people choose between those profiles. You can then extract, using nothing more than regression analysis (though, practically, no one does it that way...they use software like Sawtooth or SPSS Conjoint), how important those dimensions are for any given person. |
the technique is tedious in that respondents have to make LOTS of pair-wise comparisons, but the end product can teach you a lot about what people actually value. | |
One key is to make the task as simple and realistic as possible. So the example you gave is confusing and wouldn't work too well. But I asked you to choose between a $20 toaster with 2 slots vs. a $30 toaster with 3 slots" that would work (in reality it would be more complex than that). You'd be forced to tell me if you prefer a cheaper toaster with fewer slots or a more expensive one with more slots. There's not right answer, but I would learn about those two dimensions for you. I'd need a lot more pair-wise tradeoffs to do this right, but that's the general idea. | |
Do you find that there are significant differences between particular groups? Does age influence gift giving habits more then sex, or some other factor? Just curious about the general trends of gift giving between groups. Super general question I know, so feel free to just call me out on it | Definitely difference across genders as you would expect. More jewelry given by men to women. More gadgets given by women to men. Not so much in terms of age, though I've never really directly looked at that. The reality is that most gifts aren't that exciting. They tend to be things that are popular in a given year or old standbys like gift cards and ties. There certainly are amazing gifts and gift givers out there, but the vast majority of actual gifts given are pretty mundane. But that's not a bad thing if the recipient still likes what they get! |
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Yeah, sounds about right. And yeah if everyone is chipper it's all good :) Is there a sort of gift quality vs quantity data? Like is it better to get more frequent smaller gifts or largemore expensive gifts less frequently? | Smaller more frequent gifts every time. I have some new work on obligatory vs. non-obligatory gifts. Basically, you can make someone very happy by giving a small gift on a random Tuesday compared to a much nicer gift on their Birthday. More random-tuesday gifts every time! |
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Thank you! :) will the results of that be on ur channel? | Probably not. The channel isn't about my research, but rather about how to understand data more broadly. But the results will hopefully be published soon! |
How extensive are the consumer psychology divisions in companies like apple? | Lots of variation. Places like apple, google, amazon will have a lot of depth in terms of psychologist and consumer behavior researchers. But those are the gold standard. Most will rely on consultants to help out |
How does education on finance and economics affect consumer behavior? Does knowing the way our brains make consumer decisions or how businesses try to get you to buy change how you shop? | If you understand better how firms are trying to entice you to buy their products, you can absolutely counteract that better. For instance, $1.99 is really just $2...we all get that. But it turns out, having a 9-ending price really drives demand. That's nuts, but it does. IF you understand that, you stand a shot and not being duped by something so trivial. So educating yourself can be a big help. On finance and econ eduction, also really helpful, but in other ways. When you go to get a 30-year mortgage for your home, understanding how interest rates work, how inflation might affect home prices, how amortization tables work, etc... will help you make a much more informed decision about what is right for you. |
hi! how do you predict consumer happiness/decision making etc during unprecedented times like this, when such a scenario may not have taken place before and you do not have much data to go on? also since the research you do and the data you collect are relevant to sales, do you see advertisements being affected by the pandemic in the long run from any changes in consumer mindset? | It's really hard to predict much of anything right now. There are some basic behaviors and experiences that we can expect during a pandemic (e.g. increased anxiety, defaulting to familiar experiences, increased online shopping), but the reality is you're right...we just don't know. There's virtually no data on pandemic psychology/behavior, and all the pop-science stuff you read is just guessing at what will happen. |
As for advertising, I think that once the pandemic is over, life will be back to what it was beforehand in almost every respect. People are amazing to adapting to changing circumstances. We are all doing that now with the pandemic and will all do that again when it's over. I don't think that advertising will be any different. Give it a year after we're all vaccinated (or whatever winds up being the solution) and most people will largely forget that we even had a pandemic. Yes, some will have big changes like lost loved ones or lost jobs, but for most people, life will return to what it was before Covid hit. | |
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thank you for answering, that is very interesting! the data you collect seems to be applicable to so many different fields. i asked about advertising as a student interested in media, but i can see it being useful in various types of companies be it internet security, food, travel etc. your job sounds really cool and i will definitely check out your YouTube channel :) | Thanks! |
Did you ever get to meet Herbert Simon? Wasn't he interested in similar things? | I wish! I've been at CMU for 11 years. Simon passed away in 2001, so I missed him by a few years. |
And yes, Simon was one of the original researchers into what's known as Bounded Rationality, it's the idea that humans don't act like computers and process all information simultaneously, but rather use heuristics and shortcuts to accomplish most tasks. | |
How influential was the work of Daniel Kahnemann to your current teaching? | VERY! I don't know Danny personally, but my advisor got his PhD at Princeton when Danny was there, so lots of indirect influence that way. More generally, the field of decision making was build on his (and others) work, so hard not to be influenced. |
Do you have any opinions on investors behavior during covid 19? More specifically how certain financial firms may have targeted people who have or would dabble in market that have recently lost work due to the pandemic? | Caveat: I am not a finance professor. That said, my read is that fear of missing out (FOMO) is driving a lot of unexpected behaviors. The market has rallied like crazy since the March low and everyone wants in on that. It's hard to sit by and watch others make a killing while you don't. |
As for practices like getting people who don't typically to invest to do so, there's two sides to this. On the one hand, getting more people involved with investing is a great thing. It used to be only that the very wealthy could invest and reap the benefits of the market, but now with places like Robinhood and fee-free trading on Schwab and the like, everyone can participate. On the other hand, MANY people don't understand risk well at all. They just see the possible upside and ignore the possibility of losing a lot (see that guy that committed suicide b/c of a terrible options trade...that's horrible). So firms and gov't have a responsibility to both educate investors and provide safeguards against uninformed behaviors. | |
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Hello, I just want to specify something in your comment! The young college student who committed suicide did so because a misprogrammed number on the trading site, Robinhood. Of course at the time he did not know it, but the value loss that was near $800,000, was showing the loss of the entire option, not his equity in the option, which was -$1,000 - -$2,000 if I remember right. It was Robinhood's terrible interface, not his misunderstanding of risk, which is horrible. If you would like a misunderstanding of risk on trading platforms, look no further than wallstreetbets, of course as you said FOMO is a huge factor, or if you're interested, some trading platforms intentionally advertise to consumers without properly representing risk. Thank you very much for this AMA, it has been quite insightful! | Thanks so much for that clarification! |
I have a question re: dating sites / apps. Is there a way to structure incentives so that the company is motivated to find good pairings between users? It feels like Tinder, Bumble, Hinge, etc. don't have such an incentive currently | I think they do have an incentive to make good pairings. Word of mouth is their strongest asset so having good matches is key. The challenge is that good matches are hard to come by and not everyone agrees on what good is. Is good marriage? Is it a fun night? Not clear. |
Hello Professor and thank you for taking this time. As a professional that works in marketing and a person who suffers from mental illnesses, it is often disheartening for me to see so much valuable research and findings be easily made available for use by companies for marketing and consumer exploitation while it is so difficult for those who are struggling to find information that could be beneficial to living their lives more freely. What are your thoughts on this, and do you think there are ways we could change the system to better benefit individuals needs directly? | The connection between marketing academia, marketing industry, and consumers just sucks. No one outside of academia reads marketing academic journals. Few in academia care if their work has applications (even in an applied field like marketing). And consumers can't be bothered (rightfully) to read through academic work to learn. |
Some solutions that I've seen that work: - Marketing Science Institute: this is an organization whose entire goal is link academia and practice. They have conferences where they invite folks from both sides to collaborate. More of this please! - Pop-science social science books like Freakonomics, Blink, Predictably Irrational, etc...: They all have plenty of shortcomings, but the authors all do an amazing job of conveying the ideas of academia to the public. I think that's fantastic. More of this too please! - Consulting for non-profits. I do this and many others do as well. We use our knowledge to help non-profits do their amazing work. This is a way to avoid that "exploitation" you mentioned and instead use what we know to help others. There's not much money in this kind of consulting, which is why few do it, but it's really important. Maybe some kind of granting agency could earmark money for non-profits to hire academic consultants to help them use what we know to help the world. That would be awesome | |
hey, I'm a recent advertisement graduate, it's good to see someone from such a familiar field here anyways, when I do groceries, I always follow the list to a T, and I take no time at all getting the items, basically, I go against every little trick supermarkets have to "seduce" the customer, so my question is: what makes someone a "good customer"? is it someone highly susceptible to the marketing tricks at the market or someone who spends both their money and time more efficiently? | Good can mean different things here. You sound like you're probably super loyal to products. That's pretty great for most companies. The fact that you don't succumb to unintended purchases definitely makes you less attractive in one capacity, but your predictability makes you very attractive in other ways. If I could run a company where every customer always bought the same thing every week, I would LOVE that. I would know how to schedule raw material purchases, delivery schedules, etc... I would have a steady and dependable income. If, however, I relied just on getting lucky and catching the eye of customers as they passed my products on store shelves, that would be a whole lot more difficult a business plan to execute. |
Hi Jeff, I have always geared my life towards maxing out the benefits and deducting the losses for example leaving my family in order to search for better life oportunities, ditching jobs where I felt safe in favor of new and more promising ones. And by this logic I have reached quIte far in my life. But at the end achieving all this goals don't yields the expected satisfaction. However I'm pretty sure that don't doing this would be even worse. Why does it seems that no matter if the desitions taken are the best at my point of view it still seems like I need more than the goals I have achieved. Why is disatisfaction the expected result? | Wow, that's a lot to give up for goals! People are inherently likely to make what are known as upward comparisons. We don't look at the people who we have done better than, but instead focus on the few who done better than us. The classic example is Silver Olympic medalists. They should be elated, but instead they just covet the Gold medalist. |
Beyond that, in your specific case, it's hard to say for sure, but we know that close relationships are the number one driver of life satisfaction. If you've given those all up in pursuit of some other goal, that might explain things a bit. Take that with a grain of salt as all I know about you is summed up in 100 words or so! | |
Hello Jeff, glad to see this AMA here! I'm a statistics student in Brazil (one of my professors got his doctorate degree at Carnegie Mellon University, in fact!). Much of what we learn nowadays is related to careers pertaining the finance fields. Other stuff includes academic research mixed with other fields. I see myself as a data analyst for a big bank someday, but I always think: is there any career for a data scientist thats underrated by modern standards but still awesome and rewarding, in your opinion? | Go work for a non-profit! It's now where the money is, but many need help from data scientists. You can actually change the world that way! |
Which US dollar bill is your favorite? | Cash? You still use cash? |
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For coke yeah | Oh, in that case.... Nope, not replying and losing my tenure :) |
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Prof, you have a bias. OP mean Coca Cola. | I don't drink soda either :) |
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